There is no way to spin what happened Tuesday as anything other than a huge disappointment for the Republican Party.
At the start of the day, Republicans hoped to win the Virginia House and take control of the Senate. Instead, they lost both. What appeared to be a tight race in Kentucky turned out to be a dominating win by Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY). In Ohio, conservatives suffered their seventh straight defeat on an abortion initiative since the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court last year.
Yet, there were some bright spots for conservatives, too.
Democrats suffered meaningful defeats on crime throughout the country, including in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, where, after George Soros spent almost $2 million defeating Democratic incumbent Stephen Zappala in the primary, Zappala switched parties and won the general election with a tough-on-crime message.
Further north in Suffolk County, New York, Republican Edward Romaine won his county executive race against state prosecutor David Calone by attacking him as an ultraliberal soft on crime. Finally, in Loudoun County, Virginia, another Soros-backed district attorney, Buta Biberaj, lost her race against tough-on-crime Republican Robert Anderson. Of particular note, Anderson prevailed in the same county where Democrat Russet Perry eked out a victory over Republican Juan Pablo Segura for state Senate by attacking his position on abortion.
The Loudoun results, in particular, show that when the subject is crime, not abortion, Republicans can win, even in places that went heavily for President Joe Biden.
Not that Biden had a great night, either. The same Ohio electorate that enshrined abortion rights in its state constitution also told exit polls that it disapproved of Biden’s job as president by 6-10, and only 25% of voters said Biden should even be running for reelection.
Former President Donald Trump did no better. The same poll found just 33% of voters thought he should run in 2024. He had an even worse night in Kentucky, where his handpicked candidate, Daniel Cameron, lost to Beshear 52%-47%. Meanwhile, in the same state, Republican Russell Coleman, who has rejected Trump’s claims that he won the 2020 election, won his attorney general’s race handily, 58%-42%.
Looking at the overall results from Tuesday, an emerging path to conservative victory in 2024 becomes clear: Ditch Trump (and with him his 2020 obsession, legal problems, and other baggage) and pick a candidate who draws attention to the future and the topics voters care about, such as crime.
Republicans also need a new message on abortion that recognizes that the victory in Dobbs was just the beginning, not the end, of the debate over how states can protect vulnerable life. Instead of criminalizing what doctors can and can’t do, it would be more effective to show Republicans will help support women so they want to have their babies rather than get rid of them.
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No young girl dreams of growing up and having an abortion. Termination is always a sign that something is terribly wrong. More than 85% of women who get abortions are not married. Half of them are living in poverty. If Republicans help these women get married and escape poverty, far fewer of them would seek abortions. Millions of vulnerable lives could be saved.
Democrats have locked themselves into being a one-issue party with a generationally unpopular presidential candidate. This is a huge opportunity for a Republican who is trusted by voters on virtually every other topic, including the economy, crime, and immigration. But first, they need to move beyond Trump and choose a fresh face to lead them.
