‘Disturbing’ intel raises eyebrows in D.C.

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Something about Russia and space has the chair of the House Intelligence Committee extremely worried.

Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) issued a cryptic warning today, saying there’s “an urgent matter with regard to a destabilizing foreign military capability” and calling on all House members to review the relevant materials in a classified space. Turner also called on President JOE BIDEN to declassify the information so the U.S. and its allies “can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat.”

While the exact threat is yet to be confirmed, three people familiar with the matter told our own ERIN BANCO, Alex and LEE HUDSON that it relates to Russia and space. One of those people said it concerns Moscow’s weaponization of its orbital systems. All were granted anonymity to speak about classified materials.

In his statement this morning, Turner said his committee had made available the information about the national security threat and called on the administration to declassify the intelligence so officials and lawmakers could discuss the matter with allies.

It is not clear what prompted Turner to issue the statement now, as the intelligence has been available to leaders of the House intelligence committee and their top aides in a secure room on Capitol Hill for more than a week, one of the people said.

House intelligence committee members on Tuesday voted to open the intelligence up for viewing for all members. The Senate now has access as well.

It’s possible Turner was attempting to raise alarms about Russia’s advancements in space as a way of underscoring the need for lawmakers to approve additional aid to Ukraine. The Senate passed the supplemental bill including $60 billion in aid for Kyiv. It is currently under review by the House.

There are varying issues that the administration has viewed as concerning in regard to Russia’s activities in space, including certain developments with its satellites and its jamming of U.S. satellites.

One House intelligence committee member said the intelligence was “disturbing.” Another said “it’s a serious issue but not an immediate crisis.”

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said he was “surprised” Turner went public with his warning, telling White House reporters he previously reached out to the “Gang of Eight” top congressional leaders to hold a classified discussion. Sullivan didn’t confirm that the requested meeting, which will include Turner, was about the same matter: “I’ll leave it to you to draw whatever connections you want.”

Biden has also been tracking this issue and asked Sullivan to engage the Gang of Eight.

Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.), a HPSCI member, said in a statement that he expects the Biden administration to make the right call on declassifying intelligence. “They have used it more frequently and strategically than any other administration. And will make the decision about whether it’s important and wise to do so in this instance. It’s a serious issue but not a crisis,” he said.

The Inbox

NO EASY ACCESS: Some Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, are increasingly restricting the U.S. from using military facilities on their soil to launch retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian proxies, according to four people familiar with the issue, our own LARA SELIGMAN, Alex and NAHAL TOOSI report.

The U.S. has long deployed thousands of troops at facilities in the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and elsewhere in the Middle East, and the Arab countries’ role in supporting U.S. military activities has come under intensified scrutiny since the Israel-Hamas war that erupted in October.

The conflict has pitted Arab governments’ interests in assuaging their citizens’ anger toward Israel against their desire to help Washington fend off Iranian-backed attacks. The restrictions on U.S. activities on their soil reflect Arab calculations on how supportive they can be — without angering Iran.

U.S. LOOKING INTO ISRAEL’S ACTIONS: The State Department is investigating several Israeli airstrikes that killed dozens of civilians and looking into reports that Israel used white phosphorus in Lebanon, The Wall Street Journal’s DION NISSENBAUM and JARED MALSIN report.

One of the attacks under investigation is an Oct. 31 strike that killed 125 people in the Jabalia refugee camp near Gaza City, U.S. officials told WSJ. Investigators believe that Israel used a 2,000-pound bomb that was provided by the United States in the strike, which Israel said targeted a Hamas leader in a tunnel beneath a high-rise building.

The U.N. has said that such a deadly strike could constitute a war crime. Israel said it has tried to minimize civilian casualties by using a delayed fuse that allowed it to detonate underground, per WSJ. Investigators are also looking into whether Israel used white phosphorus in an attack in Lebanon in mid-October, which U.S. officials have expressed concern about.

The Biden administration has so far refused to put conditions on military assistance to Israel, but if investigators find that the country misused U.S. weapons, they could recommend restrictions or new guidance on how to use them, the officials said.

“That process is not intended to function as a rapid response mechanism,” State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told the outlet. “Rather, it is designed to systematically assess civilian harm incidents and develop appropriate policy responses to reduce the risk of such incidents occurring in the future.”

ISRAEL HITS LEBANON: Israel’s military said it conducted an “extensive wave of attacks” in southern Lebanon today in what appears to be retaliation for a cross-border attack that killed an Israeli woman and injured several others, Israeli military spokesperson DANIEL HAGARI tweeted today.

It marks a significant escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which is thought to have conducted the attack on the city of Safed but didn’t claim responsibility. Mediators have attempted to quell tension between the two sides, but the uptick in strikes could throw a wrench in those talks.

Fighting along the border between Israel and the militia group has occurred on a near-daily basis since the war in Gaza began, displacing more than 150,000 people in the area.

SHOW ME THE MONEY: NATO chief JENS STOLTENBERG praised the 18 countries that are on track to reach the alliance’s defense spending target and called on the 13 others to help achieve a “fair” burden sharing with the United States, our own STUART LAU reports.

“That is another record number, and a six-fold increase from 2014, when only three allies met the target,” Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers. “The criticism that we hear is not primarily about NATO, it’s about NATO allies not spending enough on NATO. And that’s a valid point.”

His remarks come after former President DONALD TRUMP warned he wouldn’t protect countries failing to meet the defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP if they’re attacked. He also threatened he would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to those countries (more on that below).

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ELECTION 2024

WHY SO SERIOUS? Trump’s allies don’t think people should be taking his latest NATO comments, which drew swift backlash from Democrats and European leaders, so literally, our own MERIDITH McGRAW, Lara and Alex report.

A number of Republicans and foreign policy experts close to the former president — including those who have worked with him in the past, are planning for a second Trump administration and regularly confer with Trump — insist that he’d be unlikely to abandon NATO allies in a crisis.

“I don’t take him literally with what he said,” said retired Lt. Gen. KEITH KELLOGG, who served as national security adviser to former Vice President MIKE PENCE and is now an adviser at the America First Policy Institute. “I know where he’s coming from … and the frustration he feels” toward NATO allies.

Efforts to defend, soften or add nuance to Trump’s words suggest that there’s an understanding, even among the far right, that such a move would carry huge geopolitical consequences. And they’re taking a page from an old playbook to try and calm nerves around it.

GABBING WITH GABBARD: Trump and his top advisers have chatted with former Hawaii Rep. TULSI GABBARD about foreign policy and how the DOD should be run should the former president win the election in November, The Washington Post’s JOSH DAWSEY, ASHLEY PARKER and DAN LAMOTHE report.

The conversations highlight Trump’s isolationist tilt, as Gabbard has been an outspoken critic of Ukraine aid and U.S. participation in global conflicts. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly told donors and advisers that one of his biggest mistakes in office was the personnel he chose to run the Pentagon, with whom he frequently clashed, according to the Post.

Keystrokes

DRONE DRIVE: The Netherlands joined a coalition of countries that’s providing Ukraine with advanced drones for its war against Russia.

Cheap, high-tech drones have become a critical part of Ukraine’s war efforts as the country runs low on conventional ammunition, and “that’s why we are joining the drone coalition … to make sure that we do just that — increase production, use the latest technology and to provide exactly what Ukraine needs,” Dutch Defense Minister KAJSA OLLONGREN told Reuters’ ANTHONY DEUTSCH.

The partnership comes a week after Ukraine announced its new military branch dedicated to drones. Kyiv plans to hire staff to train more soldiers and operate new drones, as well as scale production to make sure the military has enough of the tech.

The Complex

MORE MISSILES: Lockheed Martin is ramping up production to replenish weapons that were sent to Ukraine, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and Patriot missiles, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

The company is working with the Army to increase Javelin production to 3,960 each year by late 2026, up from 2,400 annually, FRANK ST. JOHN, the company’s chief operating officer, told our colleagues.

For HIMARS, Lockheed has increased the production rate from 48 per year to 60 annually, with the goal of getting to 96 by the end of 2024.

Lockheed received advanced funding to ramp up production of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement missiles from 500 to 550 in 2024 and to 650 missiles by 2027.

AUSTIN AT HOME: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN was released from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center and resumed his full duties Tuesday.

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SENSE OF THE SENATE: Three Republican senators want to remind Biden he can use military force to rescue America’s six hostages in Gaza.

Sens. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.), ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) on Tuesday introduced a resolution stating Article II of the Constitution gives Biden the authority to use force without needing Congress’ prior approval.

“The president has the authority — and the responsibility — to consider the use of all appropriate tools at his disposal to secure their safe release. It is past time to bring them all home,” said Scott, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, added that Biden “has every tool at his disposal to bring our citizens home.”

The lawmakers interpret Article II as empowering the president to direct the use of military force in self-defense — which means in the defense of U.S. citizens.

The resolution isn’t an authorization for the use of military force. It rather expresses a sense from Congress that Biden can authorize a military operation if he so chooses.

It’s unclear if Democrats would support the measure. But the party, along with some Republicans, have increasingly tried to strip the president of authorities to act without a congressional green light.

NEW BORDER BILL: House Republicans are planning to unveil a Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border bill as an alternative to the border-free package that passed the Senate on Tuesday, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN, JOE GOULD and ANTHONY ADRAGNA report.

Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) told reporters the proposed pathway could be revealed as early as Thursday — and that he will brief Speaker MIKE JOHNSON on its contents prior to its release. He said he is working with “a handful” of colleagues from both parties in the Senate and House, but declined to name names or give details of the proposal.

Broadsides

SOS: Ukraine’s military said today that it had sunk a Russian landing ship off the coast of Crimea, our own SERGEY GORYASHKO reports.

Ukraine’s special operations unit used Magura V5 floating drones near Alupka, a city in the far south of Crimea, to hit the Caesar Kunikov Russian vessel, Ukraine’s military intelligence said. The Magura V5 drone resembles a black speedboat and can reach speeds up to 50 miles per hour and carry some 700 pounds in weight.

Kremlin officials have stayed silent on the incident. The fate of the crew, potentially numbering up to 87, remains uncertain. Russian search and rescue efforts have thus far been unsuccessful, according to Ukraine’s military.

Transitions

— The Pentagon released the names of four Army colonels nominated for promotion to brigadier general: Col. JAMES BURK, Col. ANDREW LANDERS, Col. BILL SOLIZ and Col. YOLONDA SUMMONS.

What to Read

— Gen. KENNETH McKENZIE JR., The New York Times: It’s not time for our troops to leave the Middle East

— HAMIDREZA AZIZI and HANNA NOTTE, Foreign Affairs: Russia’s dangerous new friends

— BRADLEY HOPE, Vanity Fair: Inside JOHNNY DEPP’s epic bromance with Saudi Crown Prince MBS

Tomorrow Today

— House Science, Space and Technology Committee, 10 a.m.: Examining federal science agency actions to secure the U.S. science and technology enterprise

— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Outpacing China: expediting the fielding of innovation

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Behind the scenes: how the Biden Administration failed to enforce the Doha agreement

— Middle East Institute, 11 a.m.: A strategy for countering the Houthi threat at sea

— Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: Sanctioned realities: Iran and the failure of economic warfare

— German Marshall Fund of the United States, 12 p.m.: The global dimension of Ukraine’s cyber defense

— Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: Containing the Kremlin: how to stop Russia’s revisionism

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 p.m.: Should Ukraine have kept nuclear weapons? Deconstructing the decision to disarm

— House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Going nuclear on Rosatom: ending global dependence on Putin’s nuclear energy sector

— United States Institute of Peace and the State Department, 2:30 p.m.: The Indo-Pacific Strategy in action: commemorating the second anniversary

— New America and Arizona State University’s Future Security Initiative, 7 p.m.: Swift justice: a Taliban courtroom in session

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who is always a threat.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would never lead a long-term plot against us.